Serie A · AI Match Analysis

Vasco DA Gama
Vasco DA Gama crest
VS
Regular Season - 18
Atletico-MG crest
Atletico-MG

Vasco DA Gama vs Atletico-MGAI Prediction & Match Report

Sun 31 May 2026, 19:00 UTC Serie A Estádio São Januário, Rio de Janeiro A. Daronco Confidence 56%
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Match overview

Vasco DA Gama win
33%
Draw
27%
Atletico-MG win
41%

Market inefficiency detected in Serie A as 17th-placed Vasco (1W-0D-4L) is priced as a 1.97 favorite against 9th-placed Atletico-MG (4W-0D-1L). While Vasco has high relegation motivation, their 2.2 GA average suggests significant defensive risk against a side that has kept 4 clean sheets in 5 games.

Team news & motivation

Vasco DA Gama
Home
LWLLL
Group / table position unavailable.

Standings context unavailable — motivation read will refresh once the league table is in.

Atletico-MG
Away
WWLWW
Group / table position unavailable.

Standings context unavailable — motivation read will refresh once the league table is in.

Injuries & suspensions

Vasco DA Gama
  • A. Gomez Yellow Cards
  • Jair Knee Injury
  • Mateus Carvalho Knee Injury
  • A. Gomez Yellow Cards
  • Jair Knee Injury
  • Mateus Carvalho Knee Injury
Atletico-MG
  • J. Alonso International duty
  • A. Franco International duty
  • Gustavo Scarpa Knee Injury
  • Maycon Inactive
  • A. Minda International duty
  • Patrick Silva Knee Injury
  • A. Preciado International duty
  • Ruan Tressoldi Yellow Cards
  • J. Alonso International duty
  • A. Franco International duty
  • Gustavo Scarpa Knee Injury
  • Maycon Inactive
  • A. Minda International duty
  • Patrick Silva Knee Injury
  • A. Preciado International duty
  • Ruan Tressoldi Yellow Cards

Probable lineups

Vasco DA Gama
4-1-4-1
Coach: Gaucho Renato
Starting XI
  • 01 Leo Jardim · G
  • 02 J. Rodriguez · D
  • 46 C. Cuesta · D
  • 30 Robert Renan · D
  • 66 Cuiabano · D
  • 88 Cauan Barros · M
  • 28 Adson · M
  • 23 Thiago Mendes · M
  • 10 J. Rojas · M
  • 17 N. Moreira · M
  • 77 C. Spinelli · F
Bench
Daniel Fuzato · Hugo Moura · Ramon Rique · Lukas Zuccarello · Bruno Lopes · Lucas Freitas · Paulo Henrique · Tche Tche · David · Riquelme Avellar · Joao Vitor · Walace Fernandes
Atletico-MG
3-4-2-1
Coach: Eduardo Dominguez
Starting XI
  • 22 Everson · G
  • 03 I. Roman · D
  • 13 Lyanco · D
  • 14 Vitor Hugo · D
  • 02 Natanael · M
  • 25 T. Perez · M
  • 30 Victor Hugo · M
  • 16 R. Lodi · M
  • 28 Cuello · F
  • 11 Bernard · F
  • 19 Reinier · F
Bench
Robert · Gabriel Delfim · Alexsander · Mateus Iseppe · Vitao · Dudu · Igor Gomes · Caua · K. Pascini · M. Cisse

Tactical analysis

Vasco is expected to start with high intensity, driven by relegation pressure, likely controlling possession in the first 20 minutes. Atletico-MG will likely sit in a mid-block, looking to exploit the spaces behind Vasco's advancing full-backs. Given Atletico's 0.4 GA average, a scoreless first half is a high-probability phase. The game is likely to open up after the 60th minute as Vasco's urgency increases, creating the transition opportunities Atletico-MG needs to secure a result.

Vasco DA Gama
4-1-4-1
Goals / game
1.17
Conceded / game
2.17
Atletico-MG
3-4-2-1
Goals / game
1.33
Conceded / game
0.67

Key stats

Vasco DA Gama
Stat
Atletico-MG
  • 18
    Played
    18
  • 5
    Wins
    7
  • 5
    Draws
    3
  • 8
    Losses
    8
  • 22
    Goals for
    22
  • 29
    Goals against
    23
  • 1.20
    Avg goals for
    1.20
  • 1.60
    Avg goals against
    1.30
  • 1
    Clean sheets
    4
  • 4
    Failed to score
    7
  • 50%
    BTTS (last 6)
    33%
  • 83%
    Over 2.5 (last 6)
    33%
Shots, corners, cards & xG breakdown require provider live feeds and will appear when this competition exposes them.

Head-to-head & recent form

No verified historical meetings between Vasco DA Gama and Atletico-MG.
Vasco DA Gama — last 6
  • LH · Atletico-MG31 May 202601
  • WH · Barracas Central27 May 202630
  • LH · RB Bragantino24 May 202603
  • LA · Olimpia20 May 202613
  • LA · Internacional16 May 202614
  • DH · Paysandu13 May 202622
Atletico-MG — last 6
  • WA · Vasco DA Gama31 May 202610
  • WH · Puerto Cabello27 May 202610
  • LA · Corinthians24 May 202601
  • WH · Cienciano21 May 202620
  • WH · Mirassol16 May 202631
  • LA · Ceara14 May 202612

Prediction model

OddysAI model output
Home 33%Draw 27%Away 41%
Best market
Market Lean: Atletico-MG
Expected match script
Vasco is expected to start with high intensity, driven by relegation pressure, likely controlling possession in the first 20 minutes. Atletico-MG will likely s…

Betting angles

Market Lean: Atletico-MG
Primary
Model's highest-confidence market for this fixture.
Over 2.5 trend: 58%
Goals
Vasco DA Gama 83% · Atletico-MG 33% across each side's last 6 matches.
BTTS trend: 42%
Both teams
Vasco DA Gama 50% · Atletico-MG 33% in their last 6.

Risk warning

Responsible-betting disclaimer
Medium risk
  • Model confidence: 56% · Data quality: high
  • Lineups, injuries and momentum can move sharply in the final hour before kickoff — always re-check before placing a bet.
  • OddysAI surfaces analytical edge, not guarantees. Stake responsibly and never chase losses.

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