Serie A · AI Match Analysis

Lecce
Lecce crest
VS
Regular Season - 38
Genoa crest
Genoa

Lecce vs GenoaAI Prediction & Match Report

Sun 24 May 2026, 18:45 UTC Serie A Stadio Via del Mare, Lecce D. Doveri Confidence 70%

Match overview

Lecce win
61%
Draw
28%
Genoa win
11%

Lecce (17th) faces Genoa (15th) in a match defined by relegation stakes. Lecce requires a win to secure safety, while Genoa has no remaining competitive objectives, creating a significant motivation asymmetry.

Team news & motivation

Lecce
Home
Recent form unavailable.
#17 · 38 pts · 38 P · GD -22

Relegation pressure — three points needed to ease the table fight.

Genoa
Away
LLDDL
#16 · 41 pts · 38 P · GD -10

Relegation pressure — three points needed to ease the table fight.

Injuries & suspensions

Lecce
  • M. Berisha Thigh Injury
  • R. Sottil Back Injury
  • M. Berisha Thigh Injury
  • R. Sottil Back Injury
Genoa
  • T. Baldanzi Illness
  • M. Cornet Muscle Injury
  • J. Ekhator Foot Injury
  • C. Ekuban Injury
  • Junior Messias Muscle Injury
  • R. Malinovskyi Inactive
  • J. Onana Injury
  • L. Ostigard Knock
  • Vitinha Yellow Cards
  • T. Baldanzi Illness
  • M. Cornet Muscle Injury
  • J. Ekhator Foot Injury
  • C. Ekuban Injury
  • Junior Messias Muscle Injury
  • R. Malinovskyi Inactive
  • J. Onana Injury
  • L. Ostigard Knock
  • Vitinha Yellow Cards

Probable lineups

Lecce
4-2-3-1
Coach: Eusebio Di Francesco
Starting XI
  • 30 W. Falcone · G
  • 17 D. Veiga · D
  • 05 J. Siebert · D
  • 44 Tiago Gabriel · D
  • 25 A. Gallo · D
  • 20 Y. Ramadani · M
  • 79 O. Ngom · M
  • 50 S. Pierotti · M
  • 29 L. Coulibaly · M
  • 19 L. Banda · M
  • 99 W. Cheddira · F
Bench
C. Fruchtl · J. Samooja · T. J. Helgason · F. Marchwinski · O. Gandelman · A. Sala · S. Fofana · O. Gorter · F. Camarda · C. Ndaba · K. Ndri · G. Jean · N. Stulic · K. Gaspar · M. Perez
Genoa
3-5-1-1
Coach: Daniele De Rossi
Starting XI
  • 01 N. Leali · G
  • 27 A. Marcandalli · D
  • 34 S. Otoa · D
  • 13 N. Zatterstrom · D
  • 20 S. Sabelli · M
  • 32 M. Frendrup · M
  • 04 Amorim · M
  • 73 P. Masini · M
  • 03 A. Martin · M
  • 77 M. E. Ellertsson · F
  • 29 L. Colombo · F
Bench
J. Bijlow · D. Sommariva · J. Vasquez · B. Norton-Cuffy · M. Romano · G. Lafont · F. Carbone · M. Doucoure · J. Grossi · E. Spicuglia · W. L. Ouedraogo

Tactical analysis

Lecce is expected to control the early tempo, driven by the home crowd and relegation pressure. Genoa will likely sit in a mid-block, looking to exploit Lecce's defensive gaps on the counter. Expect a cagey first half (0-0 or 1-0). If the match is level at 70', Lecce will commit high numbers forward, creating a high-variance finish where a late goal (80'+) is statistically probable.

Lecce
4-2-3-1
Goals / game
Conceded / game
Genoa
3-5-1-1
Goals / game
0.50
Conceded / game
1.00

Key stats

Lecce
Stat
Genoa
  • Played
  • Wins
  • Draws
  • Losses
  • Goals for
  • Goals against
  • Avg goals for
  • Avg goals against
  • Clean sheets
  • Failed to score
  • BTTS (last 6)
    33%
  • Over 2.5 (last 6)
    33%
Shots, corners, cards & xG breakdown require provider live feeds and will appear when this competition exposes them.

Head-to-head & recent form

  • 24 May 2026Lecce vs Genoa· Serie A10
  • 23 Aug 2025Genoa vs Lecce· Serie A00
  • 14 Mar 2025Genoa vs Lecce· Serie A21
  • 5 Jan 2025Lecce vs Genoa· Serie A00
  • 28 Jan 2024Genoa vs Lecce· Serie A21
  • 22 Sep 2023Lecce vs Genoa· Serie A10
Lecce — last 0
    Genoa — last 6
    • LA · Lecce24 May 202601
    • LH · AC Milan17 May 202612
    • DA · Fiorentina10 May 202600
    • DA · Atalanta2 May 202600
    • LH · Como26 Apr 202602
    • WA · Pisa19 Apr 202621

    Standings context

    #TeamPWDLGDPts
    1Inter382765+5487
    2Napoli382378+2276
    3AS Roma3823411+2873
    4Como3820117+3671
    5AC Milan3820108+1870
    6Juventus3819127+2769
    7Atalanta3815149+1559
    8Bologna3816814+356
    9Lazio38141212+154
    10Udinese3814816-350
    11Sassuolo3814717-449
    12Torino3812917-1945
    13Parma38111215-1845
    14Cagliari38111017-1343
    15Fiorentina3891514-942
    16Genoa38101117-1041
    17Lecce3810820-2238
    18Cremonese3881020-2534
    19Hellas Verona3831223-3621
    20Pisa3821224-4518

    Prediction model

    OddysAI model output
    Home 61%Draw 28%Away 11%
    Best market
    Market Lean: Lecce
    Value detected
    Expected match script
    Lecce is expected to control the early tempo, driven by the home crowd and relegation pressure. Genoa will likely sit in a mid-block, looking to exploit Lecce'…
    Cross-check (third-party model)
    Combo Double chance : Lecce or draw and -3.5 goals
    Lecce 35% · Draw 35% · Genoa 30%

    Betting angles

    Market Lean: Lecce
    Value
    Model flags edge vs the market price — primary recommended angle.
    Goals line read: -3.5
    Cross-check
    Cross-check signal from third-party provider's predictions endpoint.

    Risk warning

    Responsible-betting disclaimer
    Low risk
    • Model confidence: 70% · Data quality: high
    • Lineups, injuries and momentum can move sharply in the final hour before kickoff — always re-check before placing a bet.
    • OddysAI surfaces analytical edge, not guarantees. Stake responsibly and never chase losses.

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