Serie A · AI Match Analysis

Lecce
Lecce crest
VS
Regular Season - 38
Genoa crest
Genoa

Lecce vs GenoaAI Prediction & Match Report

Sun 24 May 2026, 18:45 UTC Serie A Stadio Via del Mare, Lecce D. Doveri Confidence 70%

Match overview

Lecce win
61%
Draw
28%
Genoa win
11%

Lecce (17th) faces Genoa (15th) in a match defined by relegation stakes. Lecce requires a win to secure safety, while Genoa has no remaining competitive objectives, creating a significant motivation asymmetry.

Team news & motivation

Lecce
Home
WWLWD
Group / table position unavailable.

Standings context unavailable — motivation read will refresh once the league table is in.

Genoa
Away
LLDDL
Group / table position unavailable.

Standings context unavailable — motivation read will refresh once the league table is in.

Injuries & suspensions

Lecce
No injury or suspension reports flagged by the provider for this match.
Genoa
No injury or suspension reports flagged by the provider for this match.

Probable lineups

Lecce
4-2-3-1
Coach: Eusebio Di Francesco
Starting XI
  • 30 W. Falcone · G
  • 17 D. Veiga · D
  • 05 J. Siebert · D
  • 44 Tiago Gabriel · D
  • 25 A. Gallo · D
  • 20 Y. Ramadani · M
  • 79 O. Ngom · M
  • 50 S. Pierotti · M
  • 29 L. Coulibaly · M
  • 19 L. Banda · M
  • 99 W. Cheddira · F
Bench
C. Fruchtl · J. Samooja · T. J. Helgason · F. Marchwinski · O. Gandelman · A. Sala · S. Fofana · O. Gorter · F. Camarda · C. Ndaba · K. Ndri · G. Jean · N. Stulic · K. Gaspar · M. Perez
Genoa
3-5-1-1
Coach: Daniele De Rossi
Starting XI
  • 01 N. Leali · G
  • 27 A. Marcandalli · D
  • 34 S. Otoa · D
  • 13 N. Zatterstrom · D
  • 20 S. Sabelli · M
  • 32 M. Frendrup · M
  • 04 Amorim · M
  • 73 P. Masini · M
  • 03 A. Martin · M
  • 77 M. E. Ellertsson · F
  • 29 L. Colombo · F
Bench
J. Bijlow · D. Sommariva · J. Vasquez · B. Norton-Cuffy · M. Romano · G. Lafont · F. Carbone · M. Doucoure · J. Grossi · E. Spicuglia · W. L. Ouedraogo

Tactical analysis

Lecce is expected to control the early tempo, driven by the home crowd and relegation pressure. Genoa will likely sit in a mid-block, looking to exploit Lecce's defensive gaps on the counter. Expect a cagey first half (0-0 or 1-0). If the match is level at 70', Lecce will commit high numbers forward, creating a high-variance finish where a late goal (80'+) is statistically probable.

Lecce
4-2-3-1
Goals / game
1.17
Conceded / game
0.83
Genoa
3-5-1-1
Goals / game
0.50
Conceded / game
1.00

Key stats

Lecce
Stat
Genoa
  • Played
  • Wins
  • Draws
  • Losses
  • Goals for
  • Goals against
  • Avg goals for
  • Avg goals against
  • Clean sheets
  • Failed to score
  • 50%
    BTTS (last 6)
    33%
  • 33%
    Over 2.5 (last 6)
    33%
Shots, corners, cards & xG breakdown require provider live feeds and will appear when this competition exposes them.

Head-to-head & recent form

  • 24 May 2026Lecce vs Genoa· Serie A10
  • 23 Aug 2025Genoa vs Lecce· Serie A00
  • 14 Mar 2025Genoa vs Lecce· Serie A21
  • 5 Jan 2025Lecce vs Genoa· Serie A00
  • 28 Jan 2024Genoa vs Lecce· Serie A21
  • 22 Sep 2023Lecce vs Genoa· Serie A10
Lecce — last 6
  • WH · Genoa24 May 202610
  • WA · Sassuolo17 May 202632
  • LH · Juventus9 May 202601
  • WA · Pisa1 May 202621
  • DA · Hellas Verona25 Apr 202600
  • DH · Fiorentina20 Apr 202611
Genoa — last 6
  • LA · Lecce24 May 202601
  • LH · AC Milan17 May 202612
  • DA · Fiorentina10 May 202600
  • DA · Atalanta2 May 202600
  • LH · Como26 Apr 202602
  • WA · Pisa19 Apr 202621

Prediction model

OddysAI model output
Home 61%Draw 28%Away 11%
Best market
Market Lean: Lecce
Value detected
Expected match script
Lecce is expected to control the early tempo, driven by the home crowd and relegation pressure. Genoa will likely sit in a mid-block, looking to exploit Lecce'…
Cross-check (third-party model)
Combo Double chance : Lecce or draw and -3.5 goals
Lecce 35% · Draw 35% · Genoa 30%

Betting angles

Market Lean: Lecce
Value
Model flags edge vs the market price — primary recommended angle.
Over 2.5 trend: 33%
Goals
Lecce 33% · Genoa 33% across each side's last 6 matches.
BTTS trend: 42%
Both teams
Lecce 50% · Genoa 33% in their last 6.
Goals line read: -3.5
Cross-check
Cross-check signal from third-party provider's predictions endpoint.

Risk warning

Responsible-betting disclaimer
Low risk
  • Model confidence: 70% · Data quality: high
  • Lineups, injuries and momentum can move sharply in the final hour before kickoff — always re-check before placing a bet.
  • OddysAI surfaces analytical edge, not guarantees. Stake responsibly and never chase losses.

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