Serie A · AI Match Analysis
Atletico Paranaense vs MirassolAI Prediction & Match Report
Match overview
Atletico Paranaense (3rd) hosts Mirassol (18th) in a match defined by a significant standings gap and high motivation for both sides. Despite 8 injuries per team, the home side's 70% win rate at the Arena da Baixada provides a statistical edge against the 1.92 market price.
Team news & motivation
European-spot pressure — every point matters for the top-four chase.
Relegation pressure — three points needed to ease the table fight.
Injuries & suspensions
- Leo Derik — Injury
- Luiz Gustavo — Calf Injury
- Mycael — Inactive
- J. Portilla — International duty
- Leo Derik — Injury
- Luiz Gustavo — Calf Injury
- Mycael — Inactive
- J. Portilla — International duty
- Igor Formiga — Muscle Injury
- Nathan Fogaca — Inactive
- Negueba — Knee Injury
- Igor Formiga — Muscle Injury
- Nathan Fogaca — Inactive
- Negueba — Knee Injury
Probable lineups
- 23 Santos · G
- 04 Arthur Dias · D
- 33 F. Aguirre · D
- 37 L. Esquivel · D
- 29 G. Benavidez · M
- 16 Jadson · M
- 05 Felipinho · M
- 26 Claudinho · M
- 07 S. Mendoza · F
- 10 B. Zapelli · F
- 09 K. Viveros · F
- 22 Walter · G
- 20 Daniel Borges · D
- 34 Joao Victor · D
- 03 Willian Machado · D
- 06 Reinaldo · D
- 21 Jose Aldo · M
- 08 Denilson · M
- 96 Carlos Eduardo
- 07 Shaylon · M
- 77 Alesson · M
- 95 Edson Carioca · F
Tactical analysis
Atletico Paranaense is expected to control the early phases, utilizing their home advantage to press high. Mirassol will likely adopt a [score withheld]-1 or [score withheld]-1 low block, aiming to survive the first 20 minutes. If the score remains [score withheld] at halftime, expect the home side to increase verticality. A goal timing window between [score withheld] minutes is statistically probable given Mirassol's defensive fatigue in recent losses.
Key stats
- —Played17
- —Wins4
- —Draws4
- —Losses9
- —Goals for18
- —Goals against24
- —Avg goals for1.10
- —Avg goals against1.40
- —Clean sheets1
- —Failed to score6
- —BTTS (last 6)50%
- —Over 2.5 (last 6)50%
Head-to-head & recent form
- LA · Atletico Paranaense30 May 20260–1
- LA · Lanus26 May 20260–1
- WH · Fluminense23 May 20261–0
- WA · Always Ready20 May 20262–1
- LA · Atletico-MG16 May 20261–3
- WH · RB Bragantino13 May 20262–1
Standings context
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Palmeiras | 18 | 12 | 5 | 1 | +17 | 41 |
| 2 | Flamengo | 17 | 10 | 4 | 3 | +15 | 34 |
| 3 | Fluminense | 18 | 9 | 4 | 5 | +5 | 31 |
| 4 | Atletico Paranaense | 18 | 9 | 3 | 6 | +6 | 30 |
| 5 | RB Bragantino | 18 | 9 | 2 | 7 | +6 | 29 |
| 6 | Bahia | 17 | 7 | 5 | 5 | +2 | 26 |
| 7 | Coritiba | 18 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 0 | 26 |
| 8 | Sao Paulo | 18 | 7 | 4 | 7 | +3 | 25 |
| 9 | Atletico-MG | 18 | 7 | 3 | 8 | -1 | 24 |
| 10 | Corinthians | 18 | 6 | 6 | 6 | -1 | 24 |
| 11 | Cruzeiro | 18 | 6 | 6 | 6 | -4 | 24 |
| 12 | Botafogo | 17 | 6 | 4 | 7 | 0 | 22 |
| 13 | Vitoria | 17 | 6 | 4 | 7 | -4 | 22 |
| 14 | Internacional | 18 | 5 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 21 |
| 15 | Santos | 18 | 5 | 6 | 7 | -3 | 21 |
| 16 | Gremio | 18 | 5 | 6 | 7 | -3 | 21 |
| 17 | Vasco DA Gama | 18 | 5 | 5 | 8 | -7 | 20 |
| 18 | Remo | 18 | 4 | 6 | 8 | -8 | 18 |
| 19 | Mirassol | 17 | 4 | 4 | 9 | -6 | 16 |
| 20 | Chapecoense-sc | 17 | 1 | 6 | 10 | -16 | 9 |
Prediction model
Betting angles
Risk warning
- Model confidence: 60% · Data quality: medium
- Lineups, injuries and momentum can move sharply in the final hour before kickoff — always re-check before placing a bet.
- OddysAI surfaces analytical edge, not guarantees. Stake responsibly and never chase losses.