Serie A · AI Match Analysis

Atletico Paranaense
Atletico Paranaense crest
VS
Regular Season - 18
Mirassol crest
Mirassol

Atletico Paranaense vs MirassolAI Prediction & Match Report

Sat 30 May 2026, 19:00 UTC Serie A Arena da Baixada, Curitiba F. Mendes Confidence 60%
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Match overview

Atletico Paranaense win
57%
Draw
25%
Mirassol win
18%

Atletico Paranaense (3rd) hosts Mirassol (18th) in a match defined by a significant standings gap and high motivation for both sides. Despite 8 injuries per team, the home side's 70% win rate at the Arena da Baixada provides a statistical edge against the 1.92 market price.

Team news & motivation

Atletico Paranaense
Home
Recent form unavailable.
#4 · 30 pts · 18 P · GD +6

European-spot pressure — every point matters for the top-four chase.

Mirassol
Away
LLWWL
#19 · 16 pts · 17 P · GD -6

Relegation pressure — three points needed to ease the table fight.

Injuries & suspensions

Atletico Paranaense
  • Leo Derik Injury
  • Luiz Gustavo Calf Injury
  • Mycael Inactive
  • J. Portilla International duty
  • Leo Derik Injury
  • Luiz Gustavo Calf Injury
  • Mycael Inactive
  • J. Portilla International duty
Mirassol
  • Igor Formiga Muscle Injury
  • Nathan Fogaca Inactive
  • Negueba Knee Injury
  • Igor Formiga Muscle Injury
  • Nathan Fogaca Inactive
  • Negueba Knee Injury

Probable lineups

Atletico Paranaense
3-4-2-1
Coach: Joao Correia
Starting XI
  • 23 Santos · G
  • 04 Arthur Dias · D
  • 33 F. Aguirre · D
  • 37 L. Esquivel · D
  • 29 G. Benavidez · M
  • 16 Jadson · M
  • 05 Felipinho · M
  • 26 Claudinho · M
  • 07 S. Mendoza · F
  • 10 B. Zapelli · F
  • 09 K. Viveros · F
Bench
Mateus Soares · Isaac · Chiqueti · Leo · Julimar · C. Teran · Renan Peixoto · Gilberto Junior · Dudu Kogitzki · Leozinho · Joao Cruz · Diogo Riquelme
Mirassol
4-2-3-1
Coach: Guanaes Rafael
Starting XI
  • 22 Walter · G
  • 20 Daniel Borges · D
  • 34 Joao Victor · D
  • 03 Willian Machado · D
  • 06 Reinaldo · D
  • 21 Jose Aldo · M
  • 08 Denilson · M
  • 96 Carlos Eduardo
  • 07 Shaylon · M
  • 77 Alesson · M
  • 95 Edson Carioca · F
Bench
Alex Muralha · Thomazella · Eduardo · Neto Moura · Victor Luis · Chico Kim · Lucas Oliveira · Andre Luis

Tactical analysis

Atletico Paranaense is expected to control the early phases, utilizing their home advantage to press high. Mirassol will likely adopt a [score withheld]-1 or [score withheld]-1 low block, aiming to survive the first 20 minutes. If the score remains [score withheld] at halftime, expect the home side to increase verticality. A goal timing window between [score withheld] minutes is statistically probable given Mirassol's defensive fatigue in recent losses.

Atletico Paranaense
3-4-2-1
Goals / game
Conceded / game
Mirassol
4-2-3-1
Goals / game
1.00
Conceded / game
1.17

Key stats

Atletico Paranaense
Stat
Mirassol
  • Played
    17
  • Wins
    4
  • Draws
    4
  • Losses
    9
  • Goals for
    18
  • Goals against
    24
  • Avg goals for
    1.10
  • Avg goals against
    1.40
  • Clean sheets
    1
  • Failed to score
    6
  • BTTS (last 6)
    50%
  • Over 2.5 (last 6)
    50%
Shots, corners, cards & xG breakdown require provider live feeds and will appear when this competition exposes them.

Head-to-head & recent form

No verified historical meetings between Atletico Paranaense and Mirassol.
Atletico Paranaense — last 0
    Mirassol — last 6
    • LA · Atletico Paranaense30 May 202601
    • LA · Lanus26 May 202601
    • WH · Fluminense23 May 202610
    • WA · Always Ready20 May 202621
    • LA · Atletico-MG16 May 202613
    • WH · RB Bragantino13 May 202621

    Standings context

    #TeamPWDLGDPts
    1Palmeiras181251+1741
    2Flamengo171043+1534
    3Fluminense18945+531
    4Atletico Paranaense18936+630
    5RB Bragantino18927+629
    6Bahia17755+226
    7Coritiba18756026
    8Sao Paulo18747+325
    9Atletico-MG18738-124
    10Corinthians18666-124
    11Cruzeiro18666-424
    12Botafogo17647022
    13Vitoria17647-422
    14Internacional18567-121
    15Santos18567-321
    16Gremio18567-321
    17Vasco DA Gama18558-720
    18Remo18468-818
    19Mirassol17449-616
    20Chapecoense-sc171610-169

    Prediction model

    OddysAI model output
    Home 57%Draw 25%Away 18%
    Best market
    Market Lean: Atletico Paranaense
    Expected match script
    Atletico Paranaense is expected to control the early phases, utilizing their home advantage to press high. Mirassol will likely adopt a [score withheld]-1 or […

    Betting angles

    Market Lean: Atletico Paranaense
    Primary
    Model's highest-confidence market for this fixture.

    Risk warning

    Responsible-betting disclaimer
    Medium risk
    • Model confidence: 60% · Data quality: medium
    • Lineups, injuries and momentum can move sharply in the final hour before kickoff — always re-check before placing a bet.
    • OddysAI surfaces analytical edge, not guarantees. Stake responsibly and never chase losses.

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