Serie A · AI Match Analysis

Atalanta
Atalanta crest
VS
Regular Season - 37
Bologna crest
Bologna

Atalanta vs BolognaAI Prediction & Match Report

Sun 17 May 2026, 16:00 UTC Serie A New Balance Arena, Bergamo D. Perenzoni Confidence 62%
15 Watching

Match overview

Atalanta win
41%
Draw
41%
Bologna win
18%

A mid-table Serie A fixture with both Atalanta and Bologna showing 'end-of-season drift' and significant injury absences in attack. Market movement shows a heavy drift on the home side (1.75 to 2.22), signaling a high probability of a low-scoring stalemate.

Team news & motivation

Atalanta
Home
DLWDL
#7 · 59 pts · 38 P · GD +15

Mid-table position — playing for momentum and bonus targets rather than survival or Europe.

Bologna
Away
DWWDL
#8 · 56 pts · 38 P · GD +3

Mid-table position — playing for momentum and bonus targets rather than survival or Europe.

Injuries & suspensions

Atalanta
No injury or suspension reports flagged by the provider for this match.
Bologna
No injury or suspension reports flagged by the provider for this match.

Probable lineups

Atalanta
3-4-2-1
Coach: Raffaele Palladino
Starting XI
  • 29 M. Carnesecchi · G
  • 42 G. Scalvini · D
  • 19 B. Djimsiti · D
  • 69 H. Ahanor · D
  • 77 D. Zappacosta · M
  • 15 M. De Roon · M
  • 13 Ederson · M
  • 59 N. Zalewski · M
  • 17 C. De Ketelaere · F
  • 18 G. Raspadori · F
  • 90 N. Krstovic · F
Bench
M. Sportiello · F. Rossi · S. Kolasinac · R. Bellanova · Y. Musah · K. Sulemana · D. Vavassori · R. Obric · M. Pasalic · G. Scamacca · M. Bakker · L. Samardzic
Bologna
4-3-3
Coach: Vincenzo Italiano
Starting XI
  • 01 L. Skorupski · G
  • 17 Joao Mario · D
  • 05 E. Fauske Helland · D
  • 14 T. Heggem · D
  • 33 J. Miranda · D
  • 19 L. Ferguson · M
  • 08 R. Freuler · M
  • 04 T. Pobega · M
  • 10 F. Bernardeschi · F
  • 09 S. Castro · F
  • 11 J. Rowe · F
Bench
F. Ravaglia · M. Pessina · L. De Silvestri · N. Moro · R. Orsolini · N. Zortea · T. Dallinga · B. Dominguez · C. Lykogiannis · J. Odgaard · S. Sohm · B. Tomasevic

Tactical analysis

Expect a cagey opening 30 minutes with Atalanta controlling 55% possession but struggling to penetrate the final third. Bologna will likely sit in a compact [score withheld]-2 defensive block, looking for counters that rarely materialize without Immobile. The most likely goal window is a set-piece scramble between 60'-75', but if the match is [score withheld] at halftime, the probability of a draw increases significantly as both managers may rotate to give youth players minutes.

Atalanta
3-4-2-1
Goals / game
1.17
Conceded / game
1.33
Bologna
4-3-3
Goals / game
1.17
Conceded / game
1.50

Key stats

Atalanta
Stat
Bologna
  • 38
    Played
  • 15
    Wins
  • 14
    Draws
  • 9
    Losses
  • 51
    Goals for
  • 36
    Goals against
  • 1.30
    Avg goals for
  • 0.90
    Avg goals against
  • 13
    Clean sheets
  • 8
    Failed to score
  • 67%
    BTTS (last 6)
    33%
  • 33%
    Over 2.5 (last 6)
    33%
Shots, corners, cards & xG breakdown require provider live feeds and will appear when this competition exposes them.

Head-to-head & recent form

  • 17 May 2026Atalanta vs Bologna· Serie A01
  • 7 Jan 2026Bologna vs Atalanta· Serie A02
  • 13 Apr 2025Atalanta vs Bologna· Serie A20
  • 4 Feb 2025Atalanta vs Bologna· Coppa Italia01
  • 28 Sep 2024Bologna vs Atalanta· Serie A11
  • 3 Mar 2024Atalanta vs Bologna· Serie A12
Atalanta — last 6
  • DA · Fiorentina22 May 202611
  • LH · Bologna17 May 202601
  • WA · AC Milan10 May 202632
  • DH · Genoa2 May 202600
  • LA · Cagliari27 Apr 202623
  • DH · Lazio22 Apr 202611
Bologna — last 6
  • DH · Inter23 May 202633
  • WA · Atalanta17 May 202610
  • WA · Napoli11 May 202632
  • DH · Cagliari3 May 202600
  • LH · AS Roma25 Apr 202602
  • LA · Juventus19 Apr 202602

Standings context

#TeamPWDLGDPts
1Inter382765+5487
2Napoli382378+2276
3AS Roma3823411+2873
4Como3820117+3671
5AC Milan3820108+1870
6Juventus3819127+2769
7Atalanta3815149+1559
8Bologna3816814+356
9Lazio38141212+154
10Udinese3814816-350
11Sassuolo3814717-449
12Torino3812917-1945
13Parma38111215-1845
14Cagliari38111017-1343
15Fiorentina3891514-942
16Genoa38101117-1041
17Lecce3810820-2238
18Cremonese3881020-2534
19Hellas Verona3831223-3621
20Pisa3821224-4518

Prediction model

OddysAI model output
Home 41%Draw 41%Away 18%
Best market
Market Lean: Balanced
Value detected
Expected match script
Expect a cagey opening 30 minutes with Atalanta controlling 55% possession but struggling to penetrate the final third. Bologna will likely sit in a compact [s…
Cross-check (third-party model)
Double chance : Atalanta or draw
Atalanta 45% · Draw 45% · Bologna 10%

Betting angles

Market Lean: Balanced
Value
Model flags edge vs the market price — primary recommended angle.
Over 2.5 trend: 33%
Goals
Atalanta 33% · Bologna 33% across each side's last 6 matches.
BTTS trend: 50%
Both teams
Atalanta 67% · Bologna 33% in their last 6.

Risk warning

Responsible-betting disclaimer
Medium risk
  • Model confidence: 62% · Data quality: high
  • Lineups, injuries and momentum can move sharply in the final hour before kickoff — always re-check before placing a bet.
  • OddysAI surfaces analytical edge, not guarantees. Stake responsibly and never chase losses.

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