Serie A · AI Match Analysis
Atalanta
VS
Regular Season - 37
Bologna
Atalanta vs BolognaAI Prediction & Match Report
Sun 17 May 2026, 16:00 UTC Serie A New Balance Arena, Bergamo D. Perenzoni Confidence 62%
Open full AI analysis Medium risk
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Match overview
Atalanta win
41%
Draw
41%
Bologna win
18%
A mid-table Serie A fixture with both Atalanta and Bologna showing 'end-of-season drift' and significant injury absences in attack. Market movement shows a heavy drift on the home side (1.75 to 2.22), signaling a high probability of a low-scoring stalemate.
Team news & motivation
Atalanta
HomeDLWDL
#7 · 59 pts · 38 P · GD +15
Mid-table position — playing for momentum and bonus targets rather than survival or Europe.
Bologna
AwayDWWDL
#8 · 56 pts · 38 P · GD +3
Mid-table position — playing for momentum and bonus targets rather than survival or Europe.
Injuries & suspensions
Atalanta
No injury or suspension reports flagged by the provider for this match.
Bologna
No injury or suspension reports flagged by the provider for this match.
Probable lineups
Atalanta
3-4-2-1Coach: Raffaele Palladino
Starting XI
- 29 M. Carnesecchi · G
- 42 G. Scalvini · D
- 19 B. Djimsiti · D
- 69 H. Ahanor · D
- 77 D. Zappacosta · M
- 15 M. De Roon · M
- 13 Ederson · M
- 59 N. Zalewski · M
- 17 C. De Ketelaere · F
- 18 G. Raspadori · F
- 90 N. Krstovic · F
Bench
M. Sportiello · F. Rossi · S. Kolasinac · R. Bellanova · Y. Musah · K. Sulemana · D. Vavassori · R. Obric · M. Pasalic · G. Scamacca · M. Bakker · L. Samardzic
Bologna
4-3-3Coach: Vincenzo Italiano
Starting XI
- 01 L. Skorupski · G
- 17 Joao Mario · D
- 05 E. Fauske Helland · D
- 14 T. Heggem · D
- 33 J. Miranda · D
- 19 L. Ferguson · M
- 08 R. Freuler · M
- 04 T. Pobega · M
- 10 F. Bernardeschi · F
- 09 S. Castro · F
- 11 J. Rowe · F
Bench
F. Ravaglia · M. Pessina · L. De Silvestri · N. Moro · R. Orsolini · N. Zortea · T. Dallinga · B. Dominguez · C. Lykogiannis · J. Odgaard · S. Sohm · B. Tomasevic
Tactical analysis
Expect a cagey opening 30 minutes with Atalanta controlling 55% possession but struggling to penetrate the final third. Bologna will likely sit in a compact [score withheld]-2 defensive block, looking for counters that rarely materialize without Immobile. The most likely goal window is a set-piece scramble between 60'-75', but if the match is [score withheld] at halftime, the probability of a draw increases significantly as both managers may rotate to give youth players minutes.
Atalanta
3-4-2-1Goals / game
1.17
Conceded / game
1.33
Bologna
4-3-3Goals / game
1.17
Conceded / game
1.50
Key stats
Atalanta
Stat
Bologna
- 38Played—
- 15Wins—
- 14Draws—
- 9Losses—
- 51Goals for—
- 36Goals against—
- 1.30Avg goals for—
- 0.90Avg goals against—
- 13Clean sheets—
- 8Failed to score—
- 67%BTTS (last 6)33%
- 33%Over 2.5 (last 6)33%
Shots, corners, cards & xG breakdown require provider live feeds and will appear when this competition exposes them.
Head-to-head & recent form
- 17 May 2026Atalanta vs Bologna· Serie A0–1
- 7 Jan 2026Bologna vs Atalanta· Serie A0–2
- 13 Apr 2025Atalanta vs Bologna· Serie A2–0
- 4 Feb 2025Atalanta vs Bologna· Coppa Italia0–1
- 28 Sep 2024Bologna vs Atalanta· Serie A1–1
- 3 Mar 2024Atalanta vs Bologna· Serie A1–2
Atalanta — last 6
- DA · Fiorentina22 May 20261–1
- LH · Bologna17 May 20260–1
- WA · AC Milan10 May 20263–2
- DH · Genoa2 May 20260–0
- LA · Cagliari27 Apr 20262–3
- DH · Lazio22 Apr 20261–1
Bologna — last 6
- DH · Inter23 May 20263–3
- WA · Atalanta17 May 20261–0
- WA · Napoli11 May 20263–2
- DH · Cagliari3 May 20260–0
- LH · AS Roma25 Apr 20260–2
- LA · Juventus19 Apr 20260–2
Standings context
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Inter | 38 | 27 | 6 | 5 | +54 | 87 |
| 2 | Napoli | 38 | 23 | 7 | 8 | +22 | 76 |
| 3 | AS Roma | 38 | 23 | 4 | 11 | +28 | 73 |
| 4 | Como | 38 | 20 | 11 | 7 | +36 | 71 |
| 5 | AC Milan | 38 | 20 | 10 | 8 | +18 | 70 |
| 6 | Juventus | 38 | 19 | 12 | 7 | +27 | 69 |
| 7 | Atalanta | 38 | 15 | 14 | 9 | +15 | 59 |
| 8 | Bologna | 38 | 16 | 8 | 14 | +3 | 56 |
| 9 | Lazio | 38 | 14 | 12 | 12 | +1 | 54 |
| 10 | Udinese | 38 | 14 | 8 | 16 | -3 | 50 |
| 11 | Sassuolo | 38 | 14 | 7 | 17 | -4 | 49 |
| 12 | Torino | 38 | 12 | 9 | 17 | -19 | 45 |
| 13 | Parma | 38 | 11 | 12 | 15 | -18 | 45 |
| 14 | Cagliari | 38 | 11 | 10 | 17 | -13 | 43 |
| 15 | Fiorentina | 38 | 9 | 15 | 14 | -9 | 42 |
| 16 | Genoa | 38 | 10 | 11 | 17 | -10 | 41 |
| 17 | Lecce | 38 | 10 | 8 | 20 | -22 | 38 |
| 18 | Cremonese | 38 | 8 | 10 | 20 | -25 | 34 |
| 19 | Hellas Verona | 38 | 3 | 12 | 23 | -36 | 21 |
| 20 | Pisa | 38 | 2 | 12 | 24 | -45 | 18 |
Prediction model
OddysAI model output
Home 41%Draw 41%Away 18%
Best market
Market Lean: Balanced
Value detected
Expected match script
Expect a cagey opening 30 minutes with Atalanta controlling 55% possession but struggling to penetrate the final third. Bologna will likely sit in a compact [s…
Cross-check (third-party model)
Double chance : Atalanta or draw
Atalanta 45% · Draw 45% · Bologna 10%
Betting angles
Market Lean: Balanced
ValueModel flags edge vs the market price — primary recommended angle.
Over 2.5 trend: 33%
GoalsAtalanta 33% · Bologna 33% across each side's last 6 matches.
BTTS trend: 50%
Both teamsAtalanta 67% · Bologna 33% in their last 6.
Risk warning
Responsible-betting disclaimer
Medium risk- Model confidence: 62% · Data quality: high
- Lineups, injuries and momentum can move sharply in the final hour before kickoff — always re-check before placing a bet.
- OddysAI surfaces analytical edge, not guarantees. Stake responsibly and never chase losses.