Serie B · AI Match Analysis
America Mineiro
VS
Regular Season - 10
Vila Nova
America Mineiro vs Vila NovaAI Prediction & Match Report
Sun 24 May 2026, 21:30 UTC Serie B Arena Independência, Belo Horizonte Matheus Delgado Candançan, Brazil Confidence 62%
Open full AI analysis Medium risk
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Match overview
America Mineiro win
33%
Draw
32%
Vila Nova win
35%
A bottom-vs-top-five clash in Serie B where 20th-placed America Mineiro ([record withheld]) hosts 5th-placed Vila Nova ([record withheld]). Despite the standings, the market installs the winless home side as a 2.18 favorite, creating a potential fade opportunity.
Team news & motivation
America Mineiro
HomeLLLWL
#20 · 6 pts · 16 P · GD -17
Relegation pressure — three points needed to ease the table fight.
Vila Nova
AwayWLWLW
#1 · 31 pts · 16 P · GD +7
European-spot pressure — every point matters for the top-four chase.
Injuries & suspensions
America Mineiro
No injury or suspension reports flagged by the provider for this match.
Vila Nova
No injury or suspension reports flagged by the provider for this match.
Probable lineups
America Mineiro
4-2-3-1Coach: Valentim Alberto
Starting XI
- 01 Gustavo · G
- 22 Leo Alaba · D
- 03 Nathan Pelae · D
- 04 Rafa Barcelos · D
- 96 Artur · D
- 16 Ale · M
- 08 Felipe Amaral · M
- 77 M. Segovia · M
- 05 F. Elizari · M
- 23 Everton Brito · M
- 17 Gonzalo Mastriani · F
Bench
William · Willian Bigode · Dalbert · Emerson Santos · Val Soares · Gabriel Barros · Thauan · Jhonatan Lima · Yarlen · Jhonny · Yago Souza · O. Goncalves
Vila Nova
4-2-3-1Coach: Ferreira Guto
Starting XI
- 01 Helton Leite · G
- 15 Dudu · D
- 03 Tiago Pagnussat · D
- 14 Anderson Jesus
- 06 Higor · D
- 05 Joao Vieira · M
- 08 Willian Maranhao · M
- 11 Ryan
- 10 Marquinhos Gabriel · M
- 99 Janderson · M
- 09 Gustavo Puskas · F
Bench
Dalberson · Bruno Xavier · Hayner · Nathan Camargo · Enzo Bizzotto · Dodo · Andre Luis · Elias · Willian Formiga · Caio Marcelo · Samuel Lucas
Tactical analysis
America Mineiro is expected to start with high intensity due to relegation pressure, likely controlling 55%+ possession in the first 20 minutes. However, Vila Nova's compact [score withheld]-2 or [score withheld]-3-1 block (0.8 GA avg) will likely frustrate them. A goal timing window is projected between [score withheld] minutes as the home side tires or over-extends. If Vila Nova scores first, the home side's low scoring rate (0.5 at home) makes a comeback statistically improbable.
America Mineiro
4-2-3-1Goals / game
0.67
Conceded / game
1.33
Vila Nova
4-2-3-1Goals / game
1.50
Conceded / game
1.17
Key stats
America Mineiro
Stat
Vila Nova
- 16Played16
- 1Wins9
- 3Draws4
- 12Losses3
- 10Goals for25
- 27Goals against18
- 0.60Avg goals for1.60
- 1.70Avg goals against1.10
- 2Clean sheets4
- 8Failed to score2
- 17%BTTS (last 6)50%
- 50%Over 2.5 (last 6)50%
Shots, corners, cards & xG breakdown require provider live feeds and will appear when this competition exposes them.
Head-to-head & recent form
- 24 May 2026America Mineiro vs Vila Nova· Serie B1–2
- 9 Oct 2025America Mineiro vs Vila Nova· Serie B1–1
- 13 Jun 2025Vila Nova vs America Mineiro· Serie B0–3
- 25 Aug 2024Vila Nova vs America Mineiro· Serie B1–0
- 9 May 2024America Mineiro vs Vila Nova· Serie B3–1
- 15 Oct 2019America Mineiro vs Vila Nova· Serie B2–0
America Mineiro — last 6
- LA · Cuiaba2 Jul 20260–1
- LA · Operario-PR27 Jun 20260–1
- LH · Criciuma23 Jun 20260–1
- WA · Fortaleza EC16 Jun 20263–0
- LH · Atletico Goianiense8 Jun 20261–2
- LA · Juventude30 May 20260–3
Vila Nova — last 6
- WH · São Bernardo6 Jul 20262–1
- LA · Novorizontino26 Jun 20261–2
- WH · Nautico Recife20 Jun 20264–3
- LA · Cuiaba14 Jun 20260–1
- WH · Botafogo SP8 Jun 20261–0
- WA · Londrina31 May 20261–0
Standings context
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vila Nova | 16 | 9 | 4 | 3 | +7 | 31 |
| 2 | Novorizontino | 16 | 8 | 6 | 2 | +13 | 30 |
| 3 | Criciuma | 16 | 8 | 6 | 2 | +7 | 30 |
| 4 | Fortaleza EC | 16 | 8 | 4 | 4 | +4 | 28 |
| 5 | Operario-PR | 16 | 8 | 4 | 4 | +3 | 28 |
| 6 | Juventude | 16 | 7 | 5 | 4 | +8 | 26 |
| 7 | São Bernardo | 16 | 7 | 4 | 5 | +7 | 25 |
| 8 | Sport Recife | 16 | 6 | 7 | 3 | +6 | 25 |
| 9 | Goias | 16 | 7 | 3 | 6 | -5 | 24 |
| 10 | Cuiaba | 16 | 5 | 8 | 3 | +3 | 23 |
| 11 | Athletic Club | 16 | 5 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 22 |
| 12 | Nautico Recife | 16 | 6 | 3 | 7 | +2 | 21 |
| 13 | Atletico Goianiense | 16 | 5 | 6 | 5 | -1 | 21 |
| 14 | Botafogo SP | 16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | +2 | 19 |
| 15 | CRB | 16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | -5 | 19 |
| 16 | Londrina | 16 | 5 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 18 |
| 17 | Ceara | 16 | 4 | 5 | 7 | -5 | 17 |
| 18 | Avai | 16 | 3 | 4 | 9 | -8 | 13 |
| 19 | Ponte Preta | 16 | 2 | 2 | 12 | -21 | 8 |
| 20 | America Mineiro | 16 | 1 | 3 | 12 | -17 | 6 |
Prediction model
OddysAI model output
Home 33%Draw 32%Away 35%
Best market
Market Lean: Vila Nova
Expected match script
America Mineiro is expected to start with high intensity due to relegation pressure, likely controlling 55%+ possession in the first 20 minutes. However, Vila…
Cross-check (third-party model)
Double chance : draw or Vila Nova
America Mineiro 10% · Draw 45% · Vila Nova 45%
Betting angles
Market Lean: Vila Nova
PrimaryModel's highest-confidence market for this fixture.
Over 2.5 trend: 50%
GoalsAmerica Mineiro 50% · Vila Nova 50% across each side's last 6 matches.
BTTS trend: 34%
Both teamsAmerica Mineiro 17% · Vila Nova 50% in their last 6.
Risk warning
Responsible-betting disclaimer
Medium risk- Model confidence: 62% · Data quality: high
- Lineups, injuries and momentum can move sharply in the final hour before kickoff — always re-check before placing a bet.
- OddysAI surfaces analytical edge, not guarantees. Stake responsibly and never chase losses.