Eredivisie · AI Match Analysis
Ajax
VS
Semi-finals
Groningen
Ajax vs GroningenAI Prediction & Match Report
Thu 21 May 2026, 16:45 UTC Eredivisie Kras Stadion, Volendam M. Nagtegaal Confidence 70%
Open full AI analysis Low risk
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Match overview
Ajax win
55%
Draw
26%
Groningen win
20%
Ajax hosts Groningen in a match where both teams show end-of-season drift, but competitive pressure slightly favors the home side. Ajax ([record withheld]) faces a Groningen side ([record withheld]) that is safe in mid-table and missing their starting goalkeeper.
Team news & motivation
Ajax
HomeRecent form unavailable.
#5 · 56 pts · 34 P · GD +21
Mid-table position — playing for momentum and bonus targets rather than survival or Europe.
Groningen
AwayLWWLL
#9 · 48 pts · 34 P · GD +4
Mid-table position — playing for momentum and bonus targets rather than survival or Europe.
Injuries & suspensions
Ajax
- O. Edvardsen — Injury
- K. Fitz-Jim — Shoulder Injury
- K. Itakura — Inactive
- V. Jaros — Knee Injury
- J. Sutalo — Injury
- O. Wijndal — Injury
- O. Zinchenko — Knee Injury
- O. Edvardsen — Injury
- K. Fitz-Jim — Shoulder Injury
- K. Itakura — Inactive
- V. Jaros — Knee Injury
- J. Sutalo — Injury
- O. Wijndal — Injury
- O. Zinchenko — Knee Injury
Groningen
- S. Resink — Knee Injury
- Y. Taha — Suspended
- O. Zawada — Arm Injury
- S. Resink — Knee Injury
- Y. Taha — Suspended
- O. Zawada — Arm Injury
Probable lineups
Ajax
4-3-3Coach: Oscar Garcia Junyent
Starting XI
- 26 M. Paes · G
- 03 A. Gaaei · D
- 30 A. Bouwman · D
- 15 Y. Baas · D
- 02 L. Rosa · D
- 18 D. Klaassen · M
- 24 J. Mokio · M
- 48 S. Steur · M
- 23 S. Berghuis · F
- 25 W. Weghorst · F
- 11 M. Godts · F
Bench
P. Reverson · V. van der Velde · K. Dolberg · T. Tomiyasu · R. Bounida · R. van de Pavert · K. Kasanwirjo · M. Muzungu · Y. Regeer · O. Gloukh · M. Carrizo · D. Konadu
Groningen
4-2-3-1Coach: Dick Lukkien
Starting XI
- 01 E. Vaessen · G
- 05 M. Rente · D
- 03 T. Blokzijl · D
- 04 D. Janse · D
- 43 M. Peersman · D
- 18 T. Land · M
- 08 T. de Jonge · M
- 07 T. Hernes · M
- 17 D. van der Werff · M
- 14 J. Schreuders · M
- 26 T. van Bergen · F
Bench
H. Jurjus · L. Stubljar · M. Seuntjens · B. Willumsson · W. Prins · T. Mercera · J. Dillema · R. Kelder · S. Bouland · R. Mendes · E. van der Laan · R. Metu
Tactical analysis
Ajax is expected to dominate possession (projected 60%+) and look for early breakthroughs via wide areas. Groningen will likely sit in a mid-block, looking to exploit Ajax's defensive transitions which have been vulnerable (5 goals against in last 5). Expect a goal in the [score withheld] minute window as Groningen's defensive discipline often wanes before the half.
Ajax
4-3-3Goals / game
—
Conceded / game
—
Groningen
4-2-3-1Goals / game
1.17
Conceded / game
1.67
Key stats
Ajax
Stat
Groningen
- —Played—
- —Wins—
- —Draws—
- —Losses—
- —Goals for—
- —Goals against—
- —Avg goals for—
- —Avg goals against—
- —Clean sheets—
- —Failed to score—
- —BTTS (last 6)67%
- —Over 2.5 (last 6)67%
Shots, corners, cards & xG breakdown require provider live feeds and will appear when this competition exposes them.
Head-to-head & recent form
- 21 May 2026Ajax vs Groningen· Eredivisie2–0
- 7 Mar 2026Groningen vs Ajax· Eredivisie3–1
- 2 Dec 2025Ajax vs Groningen· Eredivisie2–0
- 14 May 2025Groningen vs Ajax· Eredivisie2–2
- 6 Oct 2024Ajax vs Groningen· Eredivisie3–1
- 16 May 2023Groningen vs Ajax· Eredivisie2–3
Ajax — last 0
Groningen — last 6
- LA · Ajax21 May 20260–2
- WA · Heracles17 May 20262–1
- WH · NEC Nijmegen10 May 20262–1
- LH · Excelsior2 May 20262–3
- LA · Feyenoord25 Apr 20261–3
- DH · GO Ahead Eagles11 Apr 20260–0
Standings context
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | PSV Eindhoven | 34 | 27 | 3 | 4 | +56 | 84 |
| 2 | Feyenoord | 34 | 19 | 8 | 7 | +26 | 65 |
| 3 | NEC Nijmegen | 34 | 16 | 11 | 7 | +24 | 59 |
| 4 | Twente | 34 | 15 | 13 | 6 | +19 | 58 |
| 5 | Ajax | 34 | 14 | 14 | 6 | +21 | 56 |
| 6 | Utrecht | 34 | 15 | 8 | 11 | +13 | 53 |
| 7 | AZ Alkmaar | 34 | 14 | 10 | 10 | +7 | 52 |
| 8 | Heerenveen | 34 | 14 | 9 | 11 | +4 | 51 |
| 9 | Groningen | 34 | 14 | 6 | 14 | +4 | 48 |
| 10 | Sparta Rotterdam | 34 | 12 | 7 | 15 | -22 | 43 |
| 11 | Fortuna Sittard | 34 | 11 | 6 | 17 | -14 | 39 |
| 12 | GO Ahead Eagles | 34 | 8 | 14 | 12 | +1 | 38 |
| 13 | Excelsior | 34 | 10 | 8 | 16 | -13 | 38 |
| 14 | Telstar | 34 | 9 | 10 | 15 | -6 | 37 |
| 15 | PEC Zwolle | 34 | 9 | 10 | 15 | -27 | 37 |
| 16 | FC Volendam | 34 | 8 | 8 | 18 | -20 | 32 |
| 17 | NAC Breda | 34 | 6 | 11 | 17 | -23 | 29 |
| 18 | Heracles | 34 | 5 | 4 | 25 | -50 | 19 |
Prediction model
OddysAI model output
Home 55%Draw 26%Away 20%
Best market
Market Lean: Ajax
Expected match script
Ajax is expected to dominate possession (projected 60%+) and look for early breakthroughs via wide areas. Groningen will likely sit in a mid-block, looking to…
Betting angles
Market Lean: Ajax
PrimaryModel's highest-confidence market for this fixture.
Risk warning
Responsible-betting disclaimer
Low risk- Model confidence: 70% · Data quality: high
- Lineups, injuries and momentum can move sharply in the final hour before kickoff — always re-check before placing a bet.
- OddysAI surfaces analytical edge, not guarantees. Stake responsibly and never chase losses.