Analytics
Articles in the Analytics category.
Analytics•10 min read
Expected Goals (xG) Analysis: The Single Most Important Metric in Football Betting
What xG is, how it's calculated, why it predicts future results better than recent form, explained for bettors.
xGexpected goalsanalytics
Analytics•8 min read
Dixon-Coles for Non-Mathematicians: How Football Probabilities Are Actually Calculated
The model behind 90% of academic football betting research, explained without the equations.
Dixon-ColesPoissonmodeling
Analytics•9 min read
Calibration vs Accuracy: Why Your Betting Model's Strike Rate Lies
A high-accuracy model can be useless for betting. A well-calibrated one can be brilliant. Here's the difference.
calibrationaccuracymodels
Analytics•10 min read
Monte Carlo Simulation for In-Play Football Betting
Why live betting on football is a Monte Carlo problem and how AI exploits second-by-second state changes.
Monte Carloin-playlive
Analytics•9 min read
Expected Points vs Actual Points: The Single Best Regression Signal
When a team's actual points diverge from their xPts, regression is coming. How to bet it.
xPtsregressionvalue